I’m writing this as a neutral observer of Bihar. I’m not part of any of the political parties. Most of my observations are from reading in web, books and following 24×7 media. Most importantly I have never been to Bihar.
Let me get one thing clear from the outset. Bihar prospered under Nitish Kumar. The state’s GDP is above nation’s average which is one of the most critical factor in determining the state’s development. If the two major parties of Bihar, JD(U) and BJP contest in a bipolar election, Nitish would win hands down.
BJP won most of the seats in parliamentary election an year back. But that is Lok Sabha and this election is for assembly. This is state election. BJP do have candidates to project in Bihar like Sushil Modi but yet to project him as the CM candidate. Putting a candidate was always BJP’s bread and butter. They might have forgotten the way they won the parliament election. But is that going to cost them the election?
Coming to the third most relevant party, the RJD and Lalu’s popularity had been really shot down after the verdict in fodder scam and his party’s non performance that critically earned the tag ‘Jungle Raj’ during his and his spouse’s regime. But to Lalu’s credit, his popularity has not waned completely. In fact, he is a crowd puller when compared to Nitish.
BJP aligning with Ram Vilas Paswan and JD(U) aligning with RJD and Congress are very good examples for opportunistic politics. By simple mathematics, in my opinion if JD(U) can win a bipolar election, they should do well in an alliance and the margin of victory should be higher. But looks like JD(U) alliance might just scrape through or may even lose. Is the baggage brought by RJD and most importantly Congress pulling them down and by how much?
Nitish would be the most preferred candidate for the chief minister. To me, it looks like Nitish has an edge but the party JD(U) in alliance with RJD and Congress is not in a comfortable state.
Will it be BJP led alliance or the Nitish led alliance? Will ‘Bada’ Modi have any influence? Or who can write off the eternal Mulayam? Who will have a better Diwali?
Wait n See.
(Views expressed above are personal)